Trygve Ugland, Bishop’s University
There is much uncertainty associated with the outcomes of the general election in Sweden on September 9. What seems certain, however, is that the far-right anti-immigration Sweden Democrats (SD) will make great gains in both votes and mandates from the previous election in 2014 when the party received 12.9 percent of the votes. According to the polls, SD may win something between 18 and 25 percent of the votes. Despite the increased support, the SD will not participate in the next Swedish government.
The most likely outcome of the general election is a minority coalition government led by either the Social Democrats or the Moderates. The SD will not be included in any of the two coalition alternatives. The seven traditional parties in the Swedish Parliament do not want to deal with SD.
Another prediction, election turnout will be high. Turnout levels in Sweden have been relatively stable after the Second World War with an average of approximately 85 percent. Due to the uncertainty associated with the government formation, the 2018 election may even beat the 85,8 turnout in 2014.